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What is the Effect of Money Supply Changes to the Real Economy of the Czech Republic?
Trnková, Adéla ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
The thesis analyses in detail the relationship between the money stock defined by money aggregates M1 and M2 and the real GDP in the Czech Republic for period between 1996 and 2015. A long-term relationship between the real GDP and the money aggregate is not found using quarterly time series data. These conclusions are in accordance with the economic theory which does not confirm that money affects level of the real GDP in the long run. Short-term relationship between given variables is also analysed. Results indicate that the growth rate of the money aggregate M1 statistically significantly affects the growth rate of the real GDP in the same direction which is in line with monetary theories of business cycle. On the other hand, any statistically significant relationship for the money aggregate M2 is not found which speaks in favour of the Real Business Cycle theory. The Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition accepted by New Classical Macroeconomists is also tested in the thesis. The issue is investigated for the whole period and subsequently for shorter time from 2000 to 2015 where the uniform monetary policy is applied. Results for the money aggregate M1 imply that expected changes in the growth rate of M1 play important role in the money-output relationship which is consistent with the New Keynesian Macroeconomic theory. Considering the shorter period of time, Lucas' theory seems to be more appropriate explanation. Outcomes for the aggregate M2 provide mixed conclusions which support rather the Real Business Cycle theory. At the end of the thesis, there is a section devoted to the quasi money (one of M2 aggregate components) as a possible source of mixed results.
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The Endogenous Supply of Money. Some Theoretical Implications
Mittner, Jiří ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Chytil, Zdeněk (referee) ; Koderová, Jitka (referee) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
This thesis concentrates on the topic of the endogenous supply of money. It describes the basic shapes of the endogenous money theory and analyzes the causes of usual misunderstandings about the nature and behavior of money. We outline the important difference between asset-based and liability-based understanding of money and conclude that although both principles are theoretically applicable, the liability-based approach matches the major volume of real economic transactions. The liability-approach, which we conclude to be more appropriate way of understanding money, leads back to the topic of money endogeneity. We go over to the development of the ideas of endogenous supply of money as they appear over the second half of the 20th century and depict the major contributions in this area. We reference also the Czech academic research and comment the most relevant works. In the second part, the thesis concentrates on two theoretical areas analyzing the impacts of the money endogeneity. We point out at fundamental controversies in the concept of deposit multiplication concluding it to be an unrealistic process in a credit based economy. We conclude that the stock of money is not a directly controllable aggregate, especially not by means of the money base. The other area is the theory of capital and the foundation of the return on capital. We recall the Keynesian topic of the euthanasia of the rentier, develop the microeconomical foundation of the accumulation of capital and conclude that the zeroizing of the interest rate is feasible in a long-run. In the third part we go over to economic history and schools of economic thinking confronting them with the theory of endogenous supply of money. We concentrate on the notorious Smithian criticism of the mercantile doctrine finding the criticism not fully sustainable if we consider the varying nature of money over the medieval period. We analyze the available statistical data of medieval England concluding that the stock of monetary metals had a direct influence on the economic activity of England in the pre-Smithian era thus referencing to a strongly exogenous character of money, while there is no such relation afterwards, when money was becoming more endogenous. We put a next emphasis on the Austrian theory of money, which in many aspects is at variance with the endogenous money theory. We analyze both views on the money circulation and add new comments to the discussion on the foundation of the return on capital. We draw attention to the Mises' idea of Zirkulationskredit (circulation credit) concluding that this concept comes in fact to a common understanding of the money behavior along with the endogenous money approach. We conclude with finding that the theory of endogenous supply of money is a fundamental economical concept with impacts on almost all other branches of economics. This thesis thus contributes to a larger adoption of the endogenous money theory in the economical research on the theoretical as well as on the practical level. Concerning the practical area, the primary interest in adoption of this theory in contemporary macroeconomics is indeed concentrated on the suggestion for economic policy after the 2008 subprime crisis and we extend this thesis also by concluding notes in this issue.
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